India’s Acquisition of MIRVs: Destabilizing the Strategic Stability of South Asia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62843/jrsr/2025.4b106Keywords:
Multiple Independently-Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), Arms Race, India, Pakistan, South AsiaAbstract
India’s acquisition of Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability and its integration into the Agni-V Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) series reveals a significant shift in the South Asia’s strategic landscape. This particular development not only undermines strategic stability but also intensifies the prevailing security dilemma, potentially accelerating an arms race between India and Pakistan in the region. Analysed through the theoretical frameworks of the Spiral Model and Security Dilemma of Arms Race, this study investigates how India’s MIRV capability exacerbates the threat perception and contributes to the sophisticated security dynamics of South Asia. Moreover, this paper presents the rationalization of MIRVs debate in the hostile South Asian context and its implications on the arms race stability. This paper proposes prospective Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), with a particular focus on Nuclear CBMs, as mechanisms to mitigate escalatory risks. By placing MIRVs technology within the broader South Asian strategic context, this research paper contributes to the existing literature by highlighting its destabilizing implications and the critical need for cooperative security measures.
References
Abid, A. A. (2023, November 6). MIRV: Technology to Maintain Strategic Balance in South Asia. SVI - Strategic Vision Institute - Strategic Vision Institute; SVI - Strategic Vision Institute. https://thesvi.org/mirv-technology-to-maintain-strategic-balance-in-south-asia/
Army Technology. (2017, September 4). Agni-V Long Range Ballistic Missile (LRBM) - Army Technology. Army Technology. https://www.army-technology.com/projects/agni-v-long-range-ballistic-missile-lrbm/
Buchonnet, D. (1997, February). MIRVs. The National Security Archive. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/NC/mirv/mirv.html
Dahlgren, M. (2024, April 23). Agni-V | Missile Threat. Missile Threat. https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/agni-5/
Dahlgren, M. (2024, April 23). Shaheen 3 | Missile Threat. Missile Threat. https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/shaheen-3/
Diaz-Maurin, F. (2024, May 7). What India’s MIRV test adds to the ‘strategic trilemma’ in South Asia. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2024/05/what-indias-mirv-test-adds-to-the-strategic-trilemma-in-south-asia/
Farooq, U. (2024, September 22). Will Indian technology make Pakistan's nuclear deterrent redundant? The Friday Times. https://thefridaytimes.com/22-Sep-2024/will-indian-technology-make-pakistan-s-nuclear-deterrent-redundant
Ganguly, S. (1999). India’s pathway to Pokhran II: The prospects and sources of New Delhi’s nuclear weapons program. International Security, 23(4), 148–177. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.23.4.148
Glaser, C. L. (2000). The causes and consequences of arms races. Annual Review of Political Science, 3, 251–276. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.251
Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157–180. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009187
Kakar, S. A. (2024, April 2). Pakistan’s MIRV capability. The Nation. https://www.nation.com.pk/02-Apr-2024/pakistan-s-mirv-capability
Karnad, B. (2024, March 13). FINALLY, Divyastra, 19 years late. Next up — thermonuclear testing. Security Wise. https://bharatkarnad.com/2024/03/12/finally-divyastra-19-years-late-next-up-thermonuclear-testing/
Khalil, T. (2024, March 27). Mission Divyastra. The Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460633/mission-divyastra
Khan, Z. (2015). Pakistan’s nuclear policy: A minimum credible deterrence (pp. 3–15). Routledge.
Khan, Z. (2016). The changing contours of minimum deterrence in South Asia. Policy Perspectives. The Journal of the Institute of Policy Studies, 13(1), 77–96. https://doi.org/10.13169/polipers.13.1.0077
Kidwai, K. (2015, March 23). A conversation with Gen. Khalid Kidwai. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/23/conversation-with-gen-khalid-kidwai-event-47944
Krepon, M., Wheeler, T., & Mason, S. (2016). The lure and pitfalls of MIRVs. Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/files/file-attachments/Lure_and_Pitfalls_of_MIRVs.pdf
Kuramitsu, S. (2024, April 18). Indian missile capable of firing multiple warheads. Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-04/news/indian-missile-capable-firing-multiple-warheads
News Desk. (2024, March 11). India tests Agni-5 missile with MIRV tech, sends message to Pakistan & China. The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-tests-agni-5-missile-with-mirv-tech-sends-message-to-pakistan-china/articleshow/108399971.cms
Noor, S. (2022, October). Pakistan’s evolving nuclear doctrine. Arms Control Association. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-10/features/pakistans-evolving-nuclear-doctrine
Noor, S. (2024, May 1). Agni-V: The new MIRV race in South Asia. South Asian Voices. https://southasianvoices.org/nuc-f-pk-r-agni-v-race-03-25-2024/
Pant, H. V. (2023, December 4). Nuclear rethink: A change in India’s nuclear doctrine has implications on cost & war strategy. ORF Online. https://www.orfonline.org/research/nuclear-rethink-a-change-in-indias-nuclear-doctrine-has-implications-on-cost-war-strategy-54557
Rehman, H. (2024, May 7). What India’s MIRV test adds to the ‘strategic trilemma’ in South Asia. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2024/05/what-indias-mirv-test-adds-to-the-strategic-trilemma-in-south-asia/
Saadia, H., & Choudhary, L. R. (2023, November 15). Institutionalizing nuclear confidence building measures between India and Pakistan. South Asian Voices. https://southasianvoices.org/institutionalizing-nuclear-confidence-building-measures-between-india-and-pakistan/
Sundaram, K., & Ramana, M. V. (2018). India and the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 1(1), 160. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2018.1438737
The Economic Times. (2024, March 11). India joins the elite list of nations with test of Agni-V MIRV tech: What’s MIRV tech? How is it unique? The Economic Times; Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-joins-the-elite-list-of-nations-with-test-of-agni-v-mirv-tech-whats-mirv-tech-how-is-it-unique/articleshow/108397707.cms?from=mdr
Thomas, T. (2013, October 2). Agni-V vital: Tessy Thomas. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/agniv-vital-tessy-thomas/article5191824.ece
Yuan, J.-D. (2000). The security environment in Southern Asia. In R. J. Ellings & A. L. Friedberg (Eds.), Strategic Asia 2000–01: Power and purpose (pp. 343–374). National Bureau of Asian Research.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
