The Price of Return: Economic and Governance Impacts of Afghan Repatriation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2023–2026

Abstract

Afghan refugees have been residing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) for over forty years, and the province is home to more than half (53.1%) of Pakistan’s registered Afghan refugee population. In September 2023, the Government of Pakistan introduced the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP), initiating the mass deportation of Afghan refugees to Afghanistan, which continued through 2025 and 2026. Although previous studies have examined the socio-economic and political effects of Afghan refugees on KPK, most rely on pre-2024 information and give limited attention to the economic and governance aspects of repatriation. This research investigates the economic and governance effects of Afghan refugees’ repatriation on KPK between 2023 and 2026. A case study research design is employed, combining descriptive analysis of UNHCR and IOM statistics with content analysis of government policy documents and existing literature. Repatriation flows through the Torkham and Ghulam Khan border crossings are also examined. More than 85,000 returns occurred in the second half of October 2023, immediately following the IFRP announcement, while returns increased further in 2025 when holders of Afghan Citizen Cards and Proof of Registration were also instructed to leave. The findings indicate that repatriation can be associated with labor shortages, decreased informal trade activity, and potential fiscal relief for the provincial government. The paper concludes that a gradual and well-coordinated repatriation policy is an effective approach to managing these economic and governance effects.